Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 11.347271 13.945585 16.849421 20.313064 24.308900 28.750984 34.038584
2025-12-14 7.668989 10.975736 15.098018 20.516232 27.344753 35.557075 46.062751
2025-12-21 5.234320 8.557679 13.101689 19.558296 28.265855 39.361585 54.300242
2025-12-28 4.103501 7.505472 12.522680 20.101707 30.861233 45.166812 65.144761
2026-01-04 3.226989 6.574364 11.873607 20.333905 32.897423 50.220115 75.165439
2026-01-11 2.609938 5.889175 11.431796 20.729306 35.088052 55.509555 85.683828
2026-01-18 2.168716 5.390794 11.176676 21.322925 37.540596 61.230283 97.006672
2026-01-25 1.680637 4.664747 10.396242 20.940537 38.417200 64.662985 105.195706
2026-02-01 1.375744 4.225025 10.036665 21.182727 40.235301 69.518128 115.583653
2026-02-08 1.063463 3.667917 9.349063 20.748470 40.883744 72.590574 123.431922
2026-02-15 0.800972 3.135493 8.602791 20.094286 41.072656 74.909930 130.191556
2026-02-22 0.680051 2.937989 8.518048 20.654758 43.345895 80.578565 142.216761
2026-03-01 0.507620 2.532348 7.931549 20.241492 44.010861 83.915097 151.140225
2026-03-08 0.401484 2.288066 7.672552 20.461178 45.841513 89.275605 163.516642
2026-03-15 0.273387 1.880079 6.907584 19.506334 45.406741 90.821105 169.871778
2026-03-22 0.223365 1.752221 6.841300 20.048693 47.819756 97.267392 184.323951
2026-03-29 0.174695 1.593662 6.650868 20.280418 49.633605 102.747800 197.376178
2026-04-05 0.139298 1.472580 6.539219 20.675009 51.783615 108.891084 211.711037
2026-04-12 0.114020 1.386385 6.513461 21.267418 54.361229 115.882790 227.667934
2026-04-19 0.079922 1.200585 6.114844 20.885808 54.904411 119.246900 237.623601
2026-04-26 0.061124 1.098993 5.971566 21.127505 56.753494 125.033595 251.851090
2026-05-03 0.040938 0.945635 5.592133 20.694134 57.121515 128.101930 261.495648
2026-05-10 0.025364 0.793542 5.158211 20.041292 56.947451 130.131969 269.380220